Predicting the ‘Mini Budget’20 September 2022
Autumn Statement 2023 – Key Points22 November 2023
It’s fair to say that the economy this year has been volatile. With inflation causing what’s been dubbed a Cost of Living Crisis and a General Election expected next year, all eyes will be on Jeremy Hunt on the 22nd November.
So what can we expect?
The Autumn Statement could hold some pivotal changes for contractors and small businesses.
Caroola Group’s Technical Compliance Manager, Jo Thorne said “With a general election looming next year, it would seem that few are expecting to see drastic changes in this Autumn statement. The chancellor pledged to bring inflation down, and he hasn’t delivered this as yet, so we would expect that he will want to take advantage of this opportunity to leave his ‘deflation’ strategy in place for a while longer, to be able to display its effectiveness to the voters ‘when it counts’ in the main Spring Budget next year.”
Increases in the National Minimum Wage have already been announced.
Rumours for this budgetary statement include adjustments to the Pension Triple Lock, cutting or even abolishing Inheritance Tax, and simplifying ISA rules to make saving more attractive, especially for first time buyers, with the LISAs and whispers around reduction in Stamp Duty.
There has also been much talk about getting people back to work, and the incentives to do so, including more around making it more difficult to claim benefits of those who are not attempting to seek work, and also more relaxation on the rules which will enable overseas workers being allowed to ‘top up’ the workforce in the UK.
Missing are the eagerly awaited Umbrella Regulations, though we may hear some indication of when this is coming now that the consultation has concluded.
What are others predicting?
Accountancy training provider, 2020 Innovation expects that smaller businesses might benefit, with cash basis, CIS reform and umbrella regulation being their main focuses. They also want to see updates on Making Tax Digital, ahead of the planned start date in 2026.
Consumer champion organisation, Which? predict ISA shake-ups, including the Lifetime ISA, help for first time buyers and possible tax cuts. They also predict cuts to inheritance tax, the usual fuel duty rise and harsher rules for benefit claimants. They also touch on the confirmed changes which includes a living wage rise and phasing out cigarettes.
Independent think-tank, The Resolution Foundation have put together a whole slide deck with their predictions. In their summary, they believe revenue has gone up due to higher tax income from higher wages and higher prices. They believe the focus to primarily be on growth.
Caroola’s Group Sales Director, Ashley Olliver said “We would like to see some actual commitment around the umbrella consultation with some firm deadlines put in place by HMRC and the Government. For far too long we have been discussing the topic around regulating the umbrella payroll sector, policing bad practice along with eradicating tax avoidance schemes. This sector is crying out for action. We want action, we need action and there is a need to make the promoters of tax avoidance schemes culpable. We will hold our breath and expect yet another period of uncertainty but you never know there are always some surprises.”
In conclusion, while speculation surrounds various aspects of the expected announcements, the consensus remains that the Chancellor will likely leverage this opportunity to showcase the effectiveness of his economic strategies before the General Election.
On the day we will be sharing our live insights with a full round-up shortly afterwards. Follow us on LinkedIn to keep up to date.